Augur, a fully-decentralized, open-source prediction marketplace position platform based on blockchain technology, intended to revolutionize forecasting, decision-making together with the vogue inwards which data consensus is collected together with aggregated, has been selected equally i of the 5 finalists inwards the “Breakthrough” category at the XCS Challenge at Exponential Finance 2015.
The Singularity University together with CNBC hosted the Exponential Finance 2015 conference (New York, 2-3 June), which examines how speedily accelerating technologies such equally artificial intelligence, quantum computing, crowdfunding, digital currencies, together with robotics are speedily disrupting businesses throughout the fiscal industry.
The Singularity University, based at Moffett Federal Airfield inwards California together with sponsored past times high-profile high-tech firms including Google, is an educational midpoint dedicated to world-changing applications of disruptive, exponentially accelerating technologies.
Augur, a fully-decentralized, open-source prediction marketplace position platform based on blockchain applied scientific discipline together with Ethereum, intended to revolutionize forecasting, conclusion making, together with the vogue inwards which data consensus is collected together with aggregated, has been selected equally i of the 5 finalists inwards the “Breakthrough” category at the XCS Challenge at Exponential Finance 2015.
“Singularity U traditionally highlights the well-nigh innovative together with cutting border applied scientific discipline together with nosotros experience Augur definitely deserves to endure here,” said Augur’s Marketing Director, Tony Sakich, to CoinTelegraph. “Prediction Markets accept the potential to practice to a greater extent than accurate forecasts inwards together with thence many fields that the applications could instruct on for a long time. The well-nigh exciting immediate application is for political polling equally Augur would enable the largest consensus of models possible.”
“Harnessing the blockchain, Augur has created the get-go online platform for a global marketplace position of predictions,” states the Exponential Finance website. “Anybody tin plough over the axe practice a marketplace position for an event, together with anyone tin plough over the axe wager whether that lawsuit volition occur or not.”
Prediction markets harness the “wisdom of the crowds” to practice powerful together with uncensorable forecasting engines. “This is the time to come of forecasting,” says the Exponential Finance announcement.
Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the role of making predictions. The electrical flow marketplace position cost for a prediction – for instance the election of a detail candidate – tin plough over the axe endure interpreted equally an aggregate, crowdsourced guess of the probability of the prediction. For example, if a prediction marketplace position safety rewards a dollar if a detail candidate is elected, those who shout out back the candidate had a lxx per centum adventure of beingness elected should endure willing to pay upwardly to lxx cents for the security.
Evidence suggests that such fiscal incentives brand prediction markets to a greater extent than effective than other forecasting strategies. The Iowa Electronic Markets typically predicts elections inside i percent, to a greater extent than accurate than polls or goodness opinions. Since 1988 it has correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election. The Foresight Exchange, i of the oldest active prediction markets, is a public, play-money marketplace position allowing individuals to sign upwardly for costless together with predict the future.
Prediction markets had a minute of fame inwards 2003, when the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), a proposed futures commutation developed past times the United States’ Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), was canceled afterwards a moving ridge of accusations of incentivizing terrorism, which resulted inwards the resignation of John Poindexter, caput of the DARPA unit of measurement responsible for developing the project.
“The thought of a federal betting parlor on atrocities together with terrorism is ridiculous, together with it’s grotesque,” said Sen. Ron Wyden.
The PAM was inspired past times the travel of George Mason University economist Robin Hanson, a leading researcher inwards the field, co-creator of the Foresight Exchange, together with writer of a seminal newspaper on “Idea Futures,” who is instantly i of the Augur advisors. Hanson explains his ideas on prediction markets together with Augur inwards a brusk video posted on the Augur website.
According to Hanson, existent coin markets such equally the Iowa Electronic Markets – together with Wall Street – predict election outcomes amend than thought polls. Referring to previous regulatory obstacles encountered past times prediction markets such equally PAM, Hanson notes that all of our familiar fiscal instruments: stocks, insurance, commodity futures, options were i time forbidden past times anti-gambling laws.